Why Our Investment Stategy Works

The Wisdom of a Lifetime

Have you ever wished that you could have all of the investing experience of a 70 year old veteran of the stock market? Can you imagine how valuable it would be to have already made every investing mistake in the book and to have learned how to avoid repeating them? Since you would have seen it all before, you wouldn't be so easily fooled by every breaking news story and each twist and turn of the market.

With 50 years of investing experience under your belt, you would have lived through 7 of 8 business cycles. You would have observed, first hand, how the stock market explodes upward out of the bottom of a recession, even while the economy is contracting. And on the flipside, you would have observed multiple times how the stock market crashes in advance of a recession, even while the economy still appears to be and growing. You would have lived through the business cycle over an over again, observing how different variables change as the cycle progresses: employment levels, interest rates, inflation, consumer confidence, production, trade, Federal Reserve Policy, debt levels, just to name a few. Can you imagine how much wiser you would be having these life experiences under your belt? You would have a much better understanding of the inter-relational aspects of world events. You would be able to focus on the truly important long term events and would be able to ignore the unimportant short term fluctuations of the market that so many investors get caught up in.

Gaining A Lifetime Of Experience - The Easy Way

Today, with the advent of computer technologies such as artificial intelligence, it is possible to acquire decades of wisdom in a relatively short time. Once an AI system is presented with historical data, it can be programmed to make stock market forecasts as it steps through time. At each point in history it measures the errors of its forecasts and makes corrections to the weights (or synapses) in the neural network in order to reduce the errors. Essentially, the AI system "lives" through history over and over again until it is able to effectively forecast the future. By subscribing to the AI Stock Forecast, you can benefit from the wisdom of a stock market veteran’s experience coupled with a computer’s memory, speed and diligence.

So How Well Does Our AI System Forecast The Market?

To date, no human or computer program has yet been able to forecast the future of stock prices with certainty. There are simply too many uncontrollable variables in the world. Events such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and financial meltdowns in foreign countries are just a few of the types of global occurrences that are for all practical purposes unpredictable. Yet these events can have dramatic effects on the US stock market. As a stock investor, you simply must accept these risks.

That being understood, the goal of our forecasting systems has always been to use as much pertinent data as possible from the global economic environment so that the artificial intelligence system's forecasts will be right more often than not. With that in mind, each individual 12 month forecast made by the AI models should not be considered as a specific target to be hit, but instead, a tool for ranking the available investments and increasing our likelihood of being invested in the best industries and the best stocks at the right time.

Since we do not know what future stock prices will be, there is only one way to measure a system's ability to forecast the future - past performance. To date, the historical performance of our artificial intelligence systems have been very good. The models were developed through rigorous back testing prior to 1999. No optimization techniques were used to artificially boost the performance. Since 1999, the models have consistently beaten the overall stock market and have proven themselves to be robust.

To keep an eye on the ongoing predictive performance of our computer models, take a look at the data on the pages under the "Performance" menu picks above.

For more information on why our investing strategies are beating the competition, take a look at the Other Strategies page.
 
 
 
 

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